July 31, 2018
Determinants of the Cyber Escalation Ladder
This article investigates how the speed and sophistication of cyber tools shape modern conflict. Using the United States as a case study, it looks at how, when, and why physical and cyber affronts can quickly escalate, and what appropriate counter-actions exist at each stage of the conflict. We also briefly contrast the US physical and cyber conflict escalation ladders with those of China and Russia. Our work has important implications for policy-makers and military leaders as it demonstrates the importance of having cyber escalation ladders for each country. We stress that not only should these ladders include country-specific perceptions of various actors and their likely motivations, but they should also account for other actors’ differences in perception of various physical and cyber actions. The latter could lead to a difference in each state’s understanding of the others’ escalation ladders, and thus unexpected responses.