The decision-making behind cyber operations is complex. Dynamics around issues such as cyber arsenal management, target assessment, and the timing of dropping a destructive payload are still ill-understood. Yet, limited published research has thus far explored formal theoretic constructs for better understanding decision-making in cyber operations. Multiple models help to understand and explain the courses of action through which state cyber missions are executed, including conduct or restraint of cyber effects operations against target systems and networks. This paper evaluates four models - surprise model, duelist model, mating-choice model, and the BlackScholes model. Each model offers specific advantages and suffers characteristic drawbacks. While these models differ in application and complexity, each may provide insights into how the unique nature of cyber operations impacts the decision dynamics of cyber conflict.
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