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News | May 31, 2026

Defense in a Denser Fog of War

By Daniel E. Geer

Technical innovation throws off side effects. This essay argues that as machine learning overlays a densely interconnected cyberspace, the most telling side effect is indeterminism, the conversion of cyberspace from a deterministic setting (outcomes can be traced to demonstrable causes) to an indeterministic one (outcomes cannot be traced to demonstrable causes).  Just as offense rewards creativity, defense rewards discipline, but discipline is based on that deterministic traceability of outcome back to cause. We have long suspected that cyber offense had an inherent strategic advantage over cyber defense; perhaps now it will be proven, not merely suspected.  Nevertheless and heretofore, the thorniest problems have fallen to infosec people to fix, and there is no reason that will not be the case here: An indeterministic cyberspace is a dangerous one; can infosec people step up to the challenge?

 

READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE

 

doi.org/10.55682/cdr/g930-7z5b

The Cyber Defense Review

Volume 11, Issue 2